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Dzialo, Joanna
Gawronska-Nowak, Bogna
Stanczyk, Ziemowit
Year of Publication: 
[Journal:] International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR) [ISSN:] 2408-0101 [Volume:] 11 [Year:] 2018 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 52-60
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, Kavala
Purpose: The purpose of this work is to confront the social expectations of the TTIP, and how it effects the so-called 'expert knowledge'. Defining a mismatch between the social expectations and expert knowledge may contribute to better understanding of the controversies related to the TTIP. Using the NAFTA case study, we investigate if there is a significant gap between ex-ante and ex-post analysis of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Design/methodology/approach: We rely on Eurobarometer (2014, 2015) and Bertelsmann Foundation (2016) surveys to describe the TTIP-related social expectations. We make a critical overview of the global CGE models, which are the main source of ex-ante estimations of TTIP macro effects. We also use the NAFTA case study as a TTIP reference point that allows for a comparison of ex-ante with ex-post analysis results. Findings: Social expectations regarding the economic effects of the TTIP are ambiguous on both sides of the Atlantic. The CGE models have many limiting assumptions. They are, however, a useful tool for exploring the effects of the TTIP, bearing in mind all restrictions and limitations of ex-ante analyses. The NAFTA case study indicates that most ex-ante models tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate disadvantages arising from free trade. Research limitations/implications: Many such surveys have been conducted recently. The results should be developed upon, for a more detailed, country-specific and time variant understanding of possible sources of social conflicts in the context of the TTIP (or FTA) implementation. Originality/value: The analysis tends to prove the existence of a mismatch between social and expert knowledge on the TTIP, which may result in generating social conflicts. A practical and original outcome of our work is a well-supported recommendation to make the TTIP realistic effects much more transparent to the public, which should be important to those supporting the TTIP (and generally speaking FTA).
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
social expectations towards TTIP
CGE models, macroeconomic effects of TTIP
NAFTA agreement
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