Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/185681
Authors: 
Dzialo, Joanna
Gawronska-Nowak, Bogna
Stanczyk, Ziemowit
Year of Publication: 
2018
Citation: 
[Journal:] International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR) [ISSN:] 2408-0101 [Volume:] 11 [Year:] 2018 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 52-60
Abstract: 
Purpose: The purpose of this work is to confront the social expectations of the TTIP, and how it effects the so-called 'expert knowledge'. Defining a mismatch between the social expectations and expert knowledge may contribute to better understanding of the controversies related to the TTIP. Using the NAFTA case study, we investigate if there is a significant gap between ex-ante and ex-post analysis of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Design/methodology/approach: We rely on Eurobarometer (2014, 2015) and Bertelsmann Foundation (2016) surveys to describe the TTIP-related social expectations. We make a critical overview of the global CGE models, which are the main source of ex-ante estimations of TTIP macro effects. We also use the NAFTA case study as a TTIP reference point that allows for a comparison of ex-ante with ex-post analysis results. Findings: Social expectations regarding the economic effects of the TTIP are ambiguous on both sides of the Atlantic. The CGE models have many limiting assumptions. They are, however, a useful tool for exploring the effects of the TTIP, bearing in mind all restrictions and limitations of ex-ante analyses. The NAFTA case study indicates that most ex-ante models tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate disadvantages arising from free trade. Research limitations/implications: Many such surveys have been conducted recently. The results should be developed upon, for a more detailed, country-specific and time variant understanding of possible sources of social conflicts in the context of the TTIP (or FTA) implementation. Originality/value: The analysis tends to prove the existence of a mismatch between social and expert knowledge on the TTIP, which may result in generating social conflicts. A practical and original outcome of our work is a well-supported recommendation to make the TTIP realistic effects much more transparent to the public, which should be important to those supporting the TTIP (and generally speaking FTA).
Subjects: 
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
social expectations towards TTIP
CGE models, macroeconomic effects of TTIP
NAFTA agreement
JEL: 
F13
K12
K22
K3
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article
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