Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/184866 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2018
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Arbeitspapier No. 12/2018
Verlag: 
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden
Zusammenfassung: 
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were highly correlated with the output gap in the past and (ii) that are ideally not subject to revisions. According to a real-time analysis, indicator-based estimates prove to be more reliable than estimates from international institutions. Currently, estimates point to positive output gaps in the euro area.
Schlagwörter: 
Business Cycles
Output Gap
Real-time Estimation
Business Survey Data
JEL: 
E32
E37
E6
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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