Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/184866 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Arbeitspapier No. 12/2018
Publisher: 
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden
Abstract: 
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were highly correlated with the output gap in the past and (ii) that are ideally not subject to revisions. According to a real-time analysis, indicator-based estimates prove to be more reliable than estimates from international institutions. Currently, estimates point to positive output gaps in the euro area.
Subjects: 
Business Cycles
Output Gap
Real-time Estimation
Business Survey Data
JEL: 
E32
E37
E6
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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