Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/18313 
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dc.contributor.authorSlacalek, Jirien
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:40:46Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:40:46Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/18313-
dc.description.abstractI propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects. Statistically speaking, the method substantially shrinks the width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust to alternative statistical assumptions. In economic terms, the productivity-augmented model generates a more realistic time profile of the NAIRU, and implies estimates of the Phillips curve slope and the sacrifice ratio that are more in line with conventional wisdom. I also test whether the natural rate is correlated with the level or with the change of the productivity growth trend. I find support for the ?level? hypothesis in both the US and international data.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) |cBerlinen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aDIW Discussion Papers |x461en
dc.subject.jelC22en
dc.subject.jelE50en
dc.subject.jelE31en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordnatural rate of unemploymenten
dc.subject.keywordproductivityen
dc.subject.keywordPhillips curveen
dc.subject.keywordtimevarying parametersen
dc.subject.keywordKalman filteren
dc.titleProductivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn47631979Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp461en

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