Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/181617
Authors: 
Döpke, Jörg
Waldhof, Gabi
Fritsche, Ulrich
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2018: Digitale Wirtschaft - Session: Forecasting I D05-V1
Abstract: 
We report results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Using data for 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they overwhelmingly rely on methods and theories that have been well-established for a long time, while more recent approaches are relatively unimportant for the practice of business cycle forecasting. DSGE models are mostly used in public institutions. In line with findings in the literature there are tendencies of \leaning towards consensus" (especially for public institutions) and \sticky adjustment of forecasts" with regard to new information. We find little evidence that the behaviour of forecasters has changed fundamentally since the Great Recession but there are signs that forecast errors are evaluated more carefully. Also, a stable relationship between preferred theories and methods and forecast accuracy cannot be established.
Subjects: 
Forecast error evaluation
questionnaire
survey
business cycle forecast
professional forecaster
JEL: 
E32
E37
C83
Document Type: 
Conference Paper
Social Media Mentions:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.