Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/181572
Authors: 
Carstensen, Kai
Bachmann, Rüdiger
Schneider, Martin
Lautenbacher, Stefan
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2018: Digitale Wirtschaft - Session: Business Cycles I A06-V2
Abstract: 
This paper provides survey evidence on firms’ subjective uncertainty about future sales growth from a new representative panel data set of the German manufacturing sector. The main finding is that uncertainty reflects change: firms report more subjective uncertainty after either high or low growth realizations. In the cross section of firms, subjective uncertainty differs from statistical measures of uncertainty such as volatility: fast-growing and large firms report lower subjective uncertainty than fast-shrinking and small firms, respectively, even if they face shocks of similar size. In contrast, the substantial time variation in firm-specific subjective uncertainty resembles that in conditional volatility: both measures of uncertainty are mildly persistent and rise more when growth is temporarily low.
Subjects: 
expectation formation
firms
measurement
subjective uncertainty
survey data
JEL: 
C83
D22
E23
C83
D22
E23
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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