Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/181563
Authors: 
Rebeggiani, Luca
Gross, Johannes
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2018: Digitale Wirtschaft - Session: Forecasting II E05-V2
Abstract: 
The extent of market efficiency induced by rational behaviour of market participants is central for economic research. Many economists have already examined sports-betting markets as a laboratory to better understand trading behaviour and efficiency of stock prices while avoiding to jointly test the hypothesis of a correct capital market model. The following paper will investigate whether the European football betting market fulfils the efficiency paradigm introduced by Fama (1970) with a unique dataset allowing for an investigation of the German betting market in view of its regulatory changes recently. The analysis contributes to the literature by conducting a variety of empirical strategy including rational expectation frameworks and an ordered choice model to stress the ex post market performance from a weak and semi-strong form perspective. In view of existing market distortions as taxes, switching costs of changing betting providers and limitation in competition, the results of the analysis are indicative of a rational market equilibrium surprisingly close to the efficiency benchmark.1
Subjects: 
Gambling
Sports Betting
Market Efficiency
JEL: 
G14
L83
Z2
Document Type: 
Conference Paper
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