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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2004
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 397
Verlag: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
In a small structural model we find asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy in Germany depending on whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. These two different regimes are also identified using a Markov-switching model and the Kalman filter. Our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are significantly higher in a downswing than in an upswing. It follows not only that monetary policy has to raise interest rates markedly if an economy is overheating but also that once a downturn is discernible, interest rates have to be lowered rapidly so as to prevent an overly large reaction of the real economy.
Schlagwörter: 
Asymmetry
monetary policy
Markov switching
structural model
JEL: 
E44
E5
E32
C32
C51
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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