Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/18082 
Year of Publication: 
2003
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 346
Publisher: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Abstract: 
The paper analyzes factors that influence the adoption of e-learning and gives an example of how to forecast technology adoption based on a post-hoc predictive segmentation using a classification and regression tree (CART). We find strong evidence for the existence of technological interdependencies and organizational learning effects. Furthermore, we find different paths to e-learning adoption. The results of the analysis suggest a growing ?digital divide? among firms. We use cross-sectional data from a European survey about e-business in June 2002, covering almost 6,000 enterprises in 15 industry sectors and 4 countries. Comparing the predictive quality of CART, we find that CART outperforms a traditional logistic regression. The results are more parsimo-nious, i. e. CARTs use less explanatory variables, better interpretable since different paths of adoption are detected, and from a statistical standpoint, because interactions between the covariates are taken into account.
Subjects: 
Technology Adoption
Path Dependence
Interaction Between Different Technologies
Regression Trees
Predictive Segmentation
Logistic Regression
JEL: 
L29
C14
O30
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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