Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18063
Authors: 
Plata, Patricia Alvarez
Schrooten, Mechthild
Year of Publication: 
2003
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers 327
Abstract: 
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the ?early warning? or ?signals? approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.
Subjects: 
Currency Crisis
Early Warning Systems
JEL: 
F31
F47
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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