Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/180230 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 6968
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that span the period from 1660 to 2016. Specifically, we use both parametric and non-parametric fractional integration techniques, that are more general than those based on the classical I(0) vs. I(1) dichotomy. Further, we carry out break tests to detect any shifts in the degree of persistence, and also run rolling-window and recursive regressions to investigate its evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively stable following the Bretton Woods period, despite the adoption of different monetary regimes. The estimation of an unobserved-components stochastic volatility model sheds further light on the issues of interest by showing that post-Bretton Woods changes in UK inflation are attributable to a fall in the volatility of permanent shocks.
Subjects: 
UK inflation
persistence
fractional integration
JEL: 
C14
C22
E31
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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