Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/180102
Authors: 
Lisenkova, Katerina
Bornukova, Kateryna
Year of Publication: 
2017
Citation: 
[Journal:] Baltic Journal of Economics [ISSN:] 2334-4385 [Volume:] 17 [Year:] 2017 [Issue:] 2 [Pages:] 103-118
Abstract: 
Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich overlapping generation model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9% of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms, including the reform which will start in 2017. To avoid a deficit without reform, pension benefits would have to be substantially reduced. The increase of retirement age to 65 for both genders has a strong positive effect on sustainability of the pension system and keeps the deficit below 2% of GDP.
Subjects: 
Belarus
pension system
demography
retirement age
pension reform
JEL: 
C68
H55
J26
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article
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