Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/179205 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
ADBI Working Paper No. 749
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo
Abstract: 
Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the "middle-income trap" (MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country (MIC) in a very short period of time, but have not been able to further catch up with the group of high-income economies. In particular, since the beginning of the growth slowdown of the economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 2011, there has been rising concern that the PRC is, or will also be, confronted with such a trap. This paper analyzes the PRC's MIT situation taking into account both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We not only survey the recent literature, but also make our own MIT forecasts and analyze under which conditions the PRC could be caught in an MIT.
Subjects: 
middle-income trap
People's Republic of China
economic growth
economic development
JEL: 
O10
O40
O47
O53
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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