Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/179204 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
ADBI Working Paper No. 748
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo
Abstract: 
Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly aging populations, which will raise pension and other old-age-related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.
Subjects: 
public pensions
Asian emerging economies
social protection
population aging
JEL: 
H2
H51
H54
H55
H62
H63
J11
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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