Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/17918 
Year of Publication: 
2000
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 984
Publisher: 
Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW), Kiel
Abstract: 
This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined to the real variables and to the second half of the nineties. For the first half of the nineties the forecast performance of money is generally poor.
Subjects: 
Euro-Zone
Geldmengen
Prognosen
JEL: 
E37
E50
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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