Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/17842 
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dc.contributor.authorCarstensen, Kaien
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:59:51Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:59:51Z-
dc.date.issued2007-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/17842-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting accuracy, and that it has had a strong and stable long-run link to inflation over the last decades. A particularly promising forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between core money growth and core inflation, and the output gap. This model has a very good track record, exhibits stable parameters over both the pre-EMU and the EMU era. What makes it appealing from a more theoretical perspective is that it relies on the stable long-run relationship between money growth and inflation.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) |cKielen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKiel Working Paper |x1318en
dc.subject.jelE58en
dc.subject.jelE47en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordForecastingen
dc.subject.keywordcore money growthen
dc.subject.keywordstabilityen
dc.subject.keywordfilteren
dc.subject.stwGeldmengeen
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwInflationen
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen
dc.titleIs core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn526073748en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1318en

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