Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/177852
Authors: 
Dewenter, Ralf
Linder, Melissa
Thomas, Tobias
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
DICE Discussion Paper 287
Abstract: 
As the rise of populist and right-wing political movements is connected to extensive media coverage, the question arises whether media report more on political parties because of their success or if their success is caused by media reports. To tackle this question, we investigate how media coverage affects short- and long-term political preferences, namely party affiliation and voting intention. For our empirical analysis, we merge 14 years of human-coded data obtained from leading media in Germany with results of the comprehensive German Politbarometer survey from February 1998 through December 2012. To account for endogeneity, we employ instrumental variable estimations. In addition, we control for a multitude of (internal) personal characteristics, such as age, and gender, as well as for (external) macroeconomic variables, such as business climate, unemployment, and inflation. The results show that media coverage of a political party has a positive and significant effect on the shortterm voting intention for this party. When media outlets cover a political party more positively, the electorate has a greater tendency to vote for it. However, for long-term party affiliation, the effect vanishes. This is consistent with the economic theory. Long-term preferences are stable and, thus, contemporary events, such as media coverage, hardly affect supposedly stable preferences. However, in the long-term, party affiliation might also be affected.
Subjects: 
political preferences
voting intention
media impact
JEL: 
C43
D72
ISBN: 
978-3-86304-286-8
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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