Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2018-030/III
This paper proposes a novel approach to introduce time-variation in structural parameters of DSGE models. Structural parameters are allowed to evolve over time via an observation-driven updating equation. The estimation of the resulting DSGE model can be easily performed by maximum likelihood without the need of time-consuming simulation-based methods. An application to a DSGE model with time varying volatility for structural shocks is presented. The results indicate a significant improvement in forecasting performance.