Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/176789 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 1724
Publisher: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Abstract: 
The European debt crisis has revealed serious deficiencies and risks on a proper functioning of the monetary union. Against this backdrop, early warning systems are of crucial importance. In this study that focuses on euro area member states, the robustness of early warning systems to predict crises of government debt is evaluated. Robustness is captured via several dimensions, such as the chronology of past crises, econometric methods, and the selection of indicators in forecast combinations. The chosen approach is shown to be crucial for the results. Therefore, the construction of early warning systems should be based on a wide set of variables and methods in order to be able to draw reliable conclusions.
Subjects: 
sovereign debt crises
multiple bubbles
signal approach
logit
panel data model
JEL: 
C23
C25
H63
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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