Albonico, Alice Tirelli, Patrizio Paccagnini, Alessia
Year of Publication:
Working Paper Series 16/02
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the subsequent jobless recovery is explained by the ZLB effect. We estimate a fraction of non-Ricardian households which is close to 50%, and obtain comparatively large fiscal multipliers. However we cannot detect a signi.cant contribution of fiscal policies in stabilizing the US economy. For instance, the 2007-2009 large increase in expenditure-to- GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession.
DSGE Limited Asset Market Participation Bayesian Estimation US Economy Business Cycle Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy