Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/175216
Authors: 
Rich, Robert W.
Tracy, Joseph S.
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report 808
Abstract: 
This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents' forecast performance and forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents' uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is little co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement, and forecast performance shows a more robust inverse relationship with disagreement than with uncertainty. Further, forecast revisions display a more meaningful association with disagreement than with uncertainty: Those respondents displaying higher levels of disagreement revise their point and density forecasts by a larger amount.
Subjects: 
uncertainty
disagreement
ECB-SPF
density forecasts
point forecasts
forecast accuracy
forecast revisions
JEL: 
C10
C20
C40
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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