Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/174988 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 6865
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We propose a model which uses the Bitcoin/US dollar exchange rate to predict the computing power of the Bitcoin network. We show that free entry places an upper-bound on mining revenues and we devise a structural framework to measure its value. Calibrating the model’s parameters allows us to accurately forecast the evolution of the network computing power over time. We establish the accuracy of the model through out-of-sample tests and investigation of the entry rule.
Subjects: 
Bitcoin
blockchain
miners
industry dynamics
JEL: 
D41
L10
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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