Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/174944
Authors: 
Castelnuovo, Efrem
Pellegrino, Giovanni
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 6821
Abstract: 
We estimate a nonlinear VAR model to study the real effects of monetary policy shocks in regimes characterized by high vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. We find unexpected monetary policy moves to exert a substantially milder impact in presence of high uncertainty. We then exploit the set of impulse responses coming from the nonlinear VAR framework to estimate a medium-scale new-Keynesian DSGE model with a minimum-distance approach. The DSGE model is shown to be able to replicate the VAR evidence in both regimes thanks to different estimates of some crucial structural parameters. In particular, we identify a steeper new-Keynesian Phillips curve as the key factor behind the DSGE model’s ability to replicate the milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version of the model featuring firm-specific capital is shown to be associated to estimates of the price frequency which are in line with some recent evidence based on micro data.
Subjects: 
monetary policy shocks
uncertainty
Threshold VAR
medium scale DSGE framework
minimum-distance estimation
JEL: 
C22
E32
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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