Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/174521
Authors: 
Dosi, Giovanni
Pereira, Marcelo de Carvalho
Virgillito, Maria Enrica
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
LEM Working Paper Series 2016/12
Abstract: 
Firms grow and decline by relatively lumpy jumps which cannot be accounted by the cumulation of small, "atom-less", independent shocks. Rather "big" episodes of expansion and contraction are relatively frequent. More technically, this is revealed by fat tail distributions of growth rates. This applies across different levels of sectoral disaggregation, across countries, over different historical periods for which there are available data. What determines such property? In Dosi et al. (2015) we implemented a simple multi-firm evolutionary simulation model, built upon the coupling of a replicator dynamic and an idiosyncratic learning process, which turns out to be able to robustly reproduce such a stylized fact. Here, we investigate, by means of a Kriging meta-model, how robust such "ubiquitousness" feature is with regard to a global exploration of the parameters space. The exercise confirms the high level of generality of the results in a statistically robust global sensitivity analysis framework.
Subjects: 
Firm Growth Rates
Fat Tail Distributions
Kriging Meta-Modeling
Near-Orthogonal Latin Hypercubes
Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis
JEL: 
C15
C63
D21
D83
L25
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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