Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/174469
Authors: 
Boonman, Tjeerd M.
Jacobs, Johannes Petrus Antonius Maria
Kuper, Gerard H.
Romero, Alberto
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers 2017-16
Abstract: 
This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that were available at the moment predictions are to be made. The study analyzes currency crises in eight Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, distinguishing an estimation period 1990-2009 and a prediction period 2010-2014. We apply two varieties of early warning systems: the signal approach and the logit models. For both methods we find that using forecasts of the indicators worsens the predictive ability of early warning systems compared to using the most recently available information (ex post).
Subjects: 
Real-time data
Early warning system
Signal approach
Logit model
Emerging economies
JEL: 
E47
G01
F31
C23
E58
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size
920.95 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.