Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/174190
Authors: 
Paulus, Michal
Michalikova, Eva
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
IES Working Paper 23/2016
Abstract: 
We propose a novel application of a gravity model of trade as a policy preference mapping tool that reveals areas of potential interest groups formation. We examine a hypothesis that the EU.s inability of the coordinated anti-corruption effort is caused by its internal heterogeneity in preferences towards the anti-corruption policy. We focus only on anti-corruption effort against bribery in foreign transaction which is reflected in the effectiveness of the enforcement of the OECD anti-bribery convention. Using the gravity model, we estimate and compare preferences of western, eastern and Mediterranean EU members towards the enforcement of the convention. In addition to aggregate exports we estimate the model on disaggregated data and examine preferences across trading sectors and identify those industries which would support or oppose the anti-corruption policy. To analyse the hypothesis, we estimate a micro-founded augmented gravity model for bilateral exports of 131 countries within period 1995-2013. The results reveal significant differences between western and eastern EU members when the eastern countries are much more motivated to oppose the policy and to form a strong interest group also on the EU level. However, there are specific sectors which have potential to form a coalition towards the policy across all country groups. We have found out that the country origin (country group to which it belongs) is much better predictor of the policy preferences than exporting sector.
Subjects: 
gravity model
OECD anti-bribery convention
international conflict
policy preference mapping
EU heterogeneity
JEL: 
F14
F42
F51
F53
F55
O17
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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