Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173769 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
NBB Working Paper No. 313
Verlag: 
National Bank of Belgium, Brussels
Zusammenfassung: 
The paper forecasts the residential property price index in Belgium with a dynamic factor model (DFM) estimated with a dataset of macro-economic variables describing the Belgian and euro area economy. The model is validated with out-of-sample forecasts which are obtained recursively over an expanding window over the period 2000q1-2012q4. We illustrate how the model reads information from mortgage loans, interest rates, GDP and inflation to revise the residential property price forecast as a result of a change in assumptions for the future paths of these variables.
Schlagwörter: 
dynamic factor model
conditional forecast
house prices
JEL: 
E32
G21
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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