Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173607 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2017-30
Publisher: 
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Quezon City
Abstract: 
The main driver of long run economic growth is total factor productivity. Among the basic sectors, namely agriculture, industry, and services, inclusiveness of economic growth depends most importantly on agriculture. This study provides growth projections for the Philippine agriculture based on growth in productivity differentiated by basic sector, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Scenario analysis finds that the current policy thrust for agriculture of subsidizing capital cost slightly accelerates growth of agriculture, but slows down overall growth by reducing capital formation. Meanwhile, maintaining productivity growth for industry-service at trend, notwithstanding weak growth of agriculture, suffices to reach government plan targets. Productivity growth of agriculture impacts strongly on agriculture itself, but not on the industry-services sectors; conversely, productivity growth in the latter strongly impacts on itself and GDP, but not on agriculture. The study suggests that policies emphasize the acceleration of productivity growth in the long run across all sectors, but especially in agriculture. Currently, forward and backward linkages of agriculture matter little to economic growth; increasing growth interactions across the basic sectors.
Subjects: 
Philippine economy
agriculture
agro-industry
computable general equilibrium
total factor productivity
growth projections
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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