Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173377 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper No. 2017-2
Verlag: 
Bank of Canada, Ottawa
Zusammenfassung: 
Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canadafs current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Based on a dynamic factor model (DFM) methodology, we use a broad range of international economic indicators (close to 300) to estimate external demand for Canadian exports. The new measure, Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports (GRACE), follows Binette et al. (2014) who suggest that a mix of global final expenditure and production variables could help better identify activity relevant to Canadian exports. They also suggest that non-variables might be relevant. GRACE uses final expenditure and production variables not only from the United States but also for all of Canada's major trading partners. We apply this approach to total exports and 14 subaggregates of Canadian exports. Overall, we find that this new measure has good theoretical and empirical properties, especially for higher-level aggregates.
Schlagwörter: 
Econometric and statistical methods
Balance of payments and components
Exchange rates
JEL: 
F10
F14
F43
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Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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