Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173201 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IWH Discussion Papers No. 30/2017
Verlag: 
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Halle (Saale)
Zusammenfassung: 
We analyse the relevance of losses, accounting information on tax loss carryforwards, and deferred taxes for the prediction of earnings and cash flows up to four years ahead. We use a unique hand-collected panel of German listed firms encompassing detailed information on tax loss carryforwards and deferred taxes from the tax footnote. Our out-of-sample predictions show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and deferred taxes does not enhance the accuracy of performance forecasts and can even worsen performance predictions. We find that common forecasting approaches that treat positive and negative performances equally or that use a dummy variable for negative performance can lead to biased performance forecasts, and we provide a simple empirical specification to account for that issue.
Schlagwörter: 
performance forecast
in-sample prediction
out-of-sample prediction
loss persistence
deferred taxes
tax loss carryforwards
JEL: 
C53
M40
M41
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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