Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173155 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
arqus Discussion Paper No. 224
Verlag: 
Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre (arqus), Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
We analyze the relevande of losses, accounting information on tax loss carryforwards, and deferred taxes for the prediction of earnings and cash flows up to four years ahead. We use a unique hand-collected panel of German listed firms encompassing detailed information on tax loss carryforwards and deferred taxes from the tax footnote. Our out-of-sample predictions show that considering accounting informaton on tax loss carryforwards and deferred taxes does not enhance the accuracy of performance forecasts and can even worsen performance predictions. We find that common forecasting approaches that treat positive and negative performances equally or that use a dummy variable for negative performance can lead to biased performance forecasts and we provide a simple empirical specification to account for that issue.
Schlagwörter: 
perfomance forecast
in-sample prediction
out-of-sample prediction
loss persistence
deferred taxes
tax loss carryforwards
JEL: 
M40
M41
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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