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Quaas, Georg
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[Journal:] Wirtschaftsdienst [ISSN:] 1613-978X [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Volume:] 95 [Year:] 2015 [Issue:] 5 [Pages:] 350-358
Ein staatliches Investitionsprogramm zum Anschub schnelleren Wachstums wird in den Krisenländern der Europäischen Währungsunion von vielen gewünscht. Die Europäische Währungsunion hat dazu eine Investitions-Initiative gestartet. Aktuell wird diskutiert, ob diese zusätzlichen staatlichen Investitionen so viel vermehrtes Wachstum generieren, dass sie sich über steigende Steuereinnahmen selbst finanzieren. Der Autor stellt Überlegungen zum Keynes-Hicks-Multiplikator an und errechnet mit einem RWI-Konjunkturmodell die langfristigen Wirkungen staatlicher Investitionen auf die wesentlichen ökonomischen Parameter.
Abstract (Translated): 
In the long run, all autonomous expenditures are zero. With this premise, the multiplier theory can be reduced to a well-known relationship between savings, investment and exports. If investment is enhanced by additional government expenditures, the best scenario implies a growing stock of capital. The corresponding increase in income can be assessed with the help of a production function. Only a tiny part of the increased income is gained by the government. A self-financing effect could eventually be reached after 32 years. But according to a more realistic scenario, the accumulation of capital would be terminated after 14 years because governmental investment crowd out private investment. Thus, the 'costs' of additional growth for that period would be enduring increases in governmental expenditures which could never be paid back.
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