Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/169335
Authors: 
Aleluia Reis, Lara
Emmerling, Johannes
Tavoni, Massimo
Raitzer, David
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series 504
Abstract: 
Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2êC) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2êC scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2êC scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2êC scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region - if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.
Subjects: 
climate change
energy
greenhouse gas
mitigation
Paris Agreement
JEL: 
C61
D58
Q52
Q53
Q54
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
1.18 MB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.