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Autoren: 
Yalew, Amsalu W.
Hirte, Georg
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
Datum: 
2017
Reihe/Nr.: 
CEPIE Working Paper 10/17
Zusammenfassung: 
Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.
Schlagwörter: 
climate change
agriculture
migration
CGE model
Ethiopia
JEL: 
C68
D58
J21
J43
J62
O55
Q54
Q56
R11
R13
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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