Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/162955 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Paper Series No. 612
Verlag: 
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, Heidelberg
Zusammenfassung: 
We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
Schlagwörter: 
Inflation uncertainty
Disagreement
Density forecast
Central banking
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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