Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162955
Authors: 
Glas, Alexander
Hartmann, Matthias
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper Series 612
Abstract: 
We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
Subjects: 
Inflation uncertainty
Disagreement
Density forecast
Central banking
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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