Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162748
Authors: 
Matta, Samer
Appleton, Simon
Bleaney, Michael F.
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
CREDIT Research Paper 17/03
Abstract: 
Previous work has investigated whether political instability has a negative effect on economic growth, with mixed results, largely because political instability can take various forms. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970-2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant effects.
Subjects: 
Aid
Political Instability
Economic Recovery
Synthetic Control Method
JEL: 
C23
F43
P16
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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