Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162389
Authors: 
Simionescu, Mihaela
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper 82
Abstract: 
The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast horizon, only few intervals included the registered values on the variables, but in the last stage when all the prior information has been used, the forecast intervals were very short. The proposed Bayesian technique for assessing prediction intervals was better than traditional approaches based on statistic tests.
Subjects: 
forecast interval
Bayesian interval
inflation
unemployment
JEL: 
C11
C13
C53
E37
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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