Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162135
Authors: 
Leuwer, David
Süßmuth, Bernd
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Universität Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science 147
Abstract: 
This study investigates reactions to real exchange rate changes in the German, French and UK automobile and mechanical engineering sectors using monthly data from 1995 to 2010. Our findings indicate that EUR/USD appreciations hamper exports, but do not necessarily imply an aggravated business climate or export order-book assessment. This does not apply to the GBP/USD and corresponding time series for the UK. First and foremost, our fixed coefficient and time varying parameter VAR model estimates confirm the extraordinary role of the German key sectors, while currency union membership seems to play a minor role at best. Overall, the exchange rate susceptibility is less profound than claimed by lobbies and held as popular belief.
Subjects: 
exporting sectors
confidence indicators
structural VAR
JEL: 
C30
E42
F41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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