Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/159796
Authors: 
Pancotto, Francesca
Pignataro, Giuseppe
Raggi, Davide
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Quaderni - Working Paper DSE 957
Abstract: 
This paper investigates the role of higher order beliefs in the formation of exchange rates. Our model combines a standard macroeconomic dynamics for the exchange rates with a microeconomic specification of agents' heterogeneity and their interactions. The empirical analysis relies on a state space model estimated through Bayesian methods. We exploit data on macroeconomic fundamentals in a panel of subjective forecasts on the euro/dollar exchange rate. The equilibrium strategy on the optimization process of the predictors shows that higher order beliefs is the relevant factor in performing individual forecasting. Moreover public information, namely past exchange rates and fundamentals, plays a crucial role as a coordination device to generate expectations among agents on the basis of their forecasting abilities.
JEL: 
D82
F41
C11
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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