Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/157252
Authors: 
Stähler, Nikolai
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper, Deutsche Bundesbank 05/2017
Abstract: 
By simulating various (labour market) integration scenarios with the aid of a New Keynesian DSGE model, this paper explores the potential economic consequences and transmission mechanisms resulting from the recent refugee migration to Germany. We find that the long-run costs and benefits for domestic agents depend critically on the skill levels migrants will obtain in the long run. A failure to integrate the about 800,000 migrants (equivalent to 1% of initial German population) could reduce per capita output and consumption by 0.43% and 0.48%, respectively, while integration measures that improve their qualification structure could even yield per capita output and consumption gains of 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively. Measures that cause the migrant qualification structure to closely match that of the native population over the long term do not lead to significant changes in GDP and consumption. Overall, our model simulations suggest that the macroeconomic impact of refugee migration is small.
Subjects: 
Refugee Migration
Labour Market Integration
Macroeconomics
JEL: 
F22
J61
J31
E24
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-347-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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