Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/156658
Authors: 
Url, Thomas
Hyndman, Rob J.
Dokumentov, Alexander
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
WIFO Working Papers 510
Abstract: 
Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, longterm forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.
Subjects: 
forecast
labour supply
age-profile
smoothing
JEL: 
C14
C33
J11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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