Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154394
Authors: 
Jung, Alexander
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 1961
Abstract: 
This paper examines whether the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has provided markets with systematic clues about its future policy rates. We explain the future fed funds rate changes using Ordered Probit models (sample 1996 to 2008). We find that timely FOMC meeting minutes have provided assurance to markets about the most likely path of future interest rates. Though, their release did not cause markets to fundamentally revise their expectations on future policy decisions. The paper also discusses lessons from the Fed experience for the ECB and other central banks.
Subjects: 
communication
FOMC minutes
monetary policy
ordered Probit
predictability
JEL: 
C34
E52
E58
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-2209-8
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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