Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154378
Authors: 
Łyziak, Tomasz
Paloviita, Maritta
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1945
Abstract: 
The paper analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank’s ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that longer-term inflation forecasts have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term forecasts and to actual HICP inflation in the post-crisis period. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term professional forecasts and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.
Subjects: 
anchoring
euro area
financial crisis
inflation expectations
survey data
JEL: 
D84
E52
E58
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-2193-0
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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