Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/154316 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 1883
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper studies the effects of fiscal consolidation on the debt-to-GDP ratio of 11 Euro area countries. Using a quarterly fiscal Panel VAR allows us to trace out the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio following a fiscal shock and to disentangle the main channels through which fiscal consolidation affects the debt ratio. We define a fiscal consolidation episode as self-defeating if the debt-to-GDP ratio does not decrease compared to the pre-shock level. Our main finding is that when consolidation is implemented via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initial increase, falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is implemented via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio is stronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level, resulting in what we call self-defeating austerity.
Schlagwörter: 
debt trajectory
fiscal consolidation
fiscal stress
panel VAR
JEL: 
E62
H6
C33
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1696-7
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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