Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154241
Authors: 
El-Shagi, Makram
Jung, Alexander
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1808
Abstract: 
This paper examines whether the minutes of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have provided markets with additional information about the future course of monetary policy. The paper conducts an econometric approach based on an Ordered Probit model explaining future policy rate changes (sample 1998 to 2014), and the Vuong test for model selection, which helps to identify changes in the market assessment around the release of MPC minutes. Our results suggest that the Bank of England’s published minutes of the MPC’s deliberations have indeed helped markets in forming their expectations on future monetary policy decisions.
Subjects: 
Communication
monetary policy committee
MPC minutes
Probit
Vuong test
JEL: 
C34
D78
E52
E58
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1621-9
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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