Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154240
Authors: 
López Pérez, Víctor
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1807
Abstract: 
This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in measures of uncertainty over time have led to changes in aggregate response rates. And second, a discrete-choice model for panel data is estimated to test if changes in uncertainty measures have had effects on the likelihood to participate by SPF forecasters. The main result of the paper is that higher (lower) uncertainty reduces (increases) participation in the survey. This effect is statistically and economically significant. As participation and uncertainty are found to be negatively correlated, measures of uncertainty from the ECB’s SPF could be biased downwards.
Subjects: 
European Central Bank
participation
Survey of Professional Forecasters
uncertainty
JEL: 
D81
D84
E66
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1620-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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