Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154208
Authors: 
Gomes, Sandra
Mendicino, Caterina
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1775
Abstract: 
This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that news-shock-driven-cycles account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and have also contributed to run-ups in house prices over the last three decades. By exploring the link between news shocks and agent expectations, we show that house price growth was positively related to inflation expectations during the boom of the late 1970’s but negatively related to interest rate expectations during the mid-2000’s housing boom.
Subjects: 
Bayesian estimation
Financial frictions
housing market
local identification
news shocks
survey expectations
JEL: 
C50
E32
E44
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1588-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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