Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154145
Authors: 
Hernández de Cos, Pablo
Koester, Gerrit B.
Moral-Benito, Enrique
Nickel, Christiane
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1712
Abstract: 
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early warning systems. Finally we draw policy conclusions for the setting?up and application of a system of early warning indicators for fiscal stress.
Subjects: 
debt management
deficit surplus
fiscal policy
general outlook and conditions
international lending and debt problems
sovereign debt
studies of particular policy episodes
JEL: 
E62
E65
E66
H62
H63
F34
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1120-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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