Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153973
Authors: 
Kenny, Geoff
Kostka, Thomas
Masera, Federico
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1540
Abstract: 
We propose methods to evaluate the risk assessments collected as part of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Our approach focuses on direction-of-change predictions as well as the prediction of relatively more extreme macroeconomic outcomes located in the upper and lower regions of the predictive densities. For inflation and GDP growth, we find such surveyed densities are informative about future direction of change. Regarding more extreme high and low outcome events, the surveys are really only informative about GDP growth outcomes and at short-horizons. The upper and lower regions of the predictive densities for inflation are much less informative.
Subjects: 
calibration error
forecast evaluation
probability forecasts
Survey of Professional Forecasters
JEL: 
C22
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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